The overall impact on the industry will depend on how the law is written. For example, Kim says the wording of the United Kingdom rule states only that by 2040, all new vehicles must be electrified, which includes hybrids, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen. This is much different than mandating fully electric vehicles.
"In other words, there will be plenty of new vehicles powered by gasoline and diesel in the U.K. in 2040, it's just that they will be augmented by batteries," Kim says via email. "We have not seen the wording of the proposed bill that will be introduced in California in January, but if it follows the lead of other so-called gasoline bans announced around the world, it will likely stipulate that all new vehicles sold in California by 2040 must [have] some form of electrification."
That said, the rule-makers could still go more extreme. Hybrids and EVs cost more than conventional gasoline cars because the high-tech batteries are expensive. Federal and state tax rebates help offset the cost somewhat (this is true across the country) but it's understandable that Californians might be concerned about buying the higher-priced cars. It's still premature to worry, Kim says, though by the time the rule is enforced, batteries should be much more affordable than they are now.
"By some estimates, battery powered cars will be cheaper than conventional cars in the foreseeable future," he says.
Support is another problem, though. California's EV infrastructure is among the best in the country, but even it needs improvement. According to Wired, the city of San Jose has 500 electric charge points per million people, and San Francisco has 450 charge points per million people. These numbers are high, but Silicon Valley and major cities don't represent the entire state. Driving electric cars has to be just as convenient for people in areas that are less densely populated. California is already working on it, and was just awarded $800 million to allocate toward infrastructure as part of Volkswagen's Dieselgate settlement.
The state's electric grid already produces enough energy to support more electric cars, but Kim points out it might be difficult to get homes ready. Multi-family dwellings like apartments and condos can only support so many charging outlets, especially where so many residents depend on street parking. There is also concern that some buildings are too old to safely handle an increase in electrical load.
Even with plenty of power to go around, consumers need to understand what they're paying for. Kim says that the complicated pricing structure of utilities is already too confusing. "Figuring out one's operating costs for an electrified vehicle is so much more complex than filling up a tank with gasoline or diesel," he says. "This needs to change in order for the mainstream to adopt electrification."