Will a Lanthanides Shortage Hurt EVs?

This post, part of a series we're running all about electric cars, was written by Patrick J. Kiger from HowStuffWorks.com.

Lanthanides might sound like the name of an ancient Greek philosopher. But it's the term for a row of 15 elements, atomic numbers 57 to 71 on the Periodic Table, most of which have names that don't easily roll off the tongue -- like praseodymium and gadolinium. Even though lanthanides might seem obscure, they're part of an important class of metals known as rare earths and are used in much of the modern world's advanced gadgetry, from nuclear reactor fuel rods to sunglass lenses. In particular, various lanthanides are used to make many of the important components of electric vehicles (EVs), such as magnets, NIMH batteries and electric motors.

So if EVs replace conventional automobiles, we're going to need an abundant future supply of lanthanides. And that's what has some people worried.

Though lanthanides are classified as rare earth metals, they're actually not all that rare. The global supply is about 100 million tons, which is enough to last us 1,000 years at the present rate of consumption. The problem is that upwards of 97 percent of the supply is controlled by one nation, China, which spent the past decade or so aggressively investing in the expensive and tricky process of extracting and processing lanthanides reserves.

In contrast, the United States and other Western countries unwisely neglected their own efforts, and playing catch-up won't be easy. A recent U.S. Government Accountability Office report noted that China's dominant position in rare earths allowed it to control global availability and prices. Ominously, GAO also reported that China has recently increased its own production quotas for domestic consumption and decreased exports, which it now slaps with a 15 to 25 percent tax. The Chinese government also isn't above using its control of the lanthanides supply to pressure other nations to do its bidding. Bloomberg Businessweek reported in late September that China had cut off exports to Japan, in response to that country's detention of a Chinese fishing boat that had collided with two Japanese Coast Guard vessels.

What does this mean for EVs? Check out this chart on Edmunds.com showing the various lanthanides used in EV's close cousin, the Toyota Prius hybrid, and you'll see that a tightening of the supply has the potential to strangle the nascent EV industry.

So what can be done? After being asleep at the wheel for too long, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that would support U.S. Department of Energy efforts to improve our access to lanthanides and rare earths, according to The Wall Street Journal. Mark A. Smith, CEO of domestic rare earths producer Molycorp Minerals, testified to Congress this spring that his company's facility in Mountain Pass, Calif., sits atop one of the richest rare earth deposits on the planet. The problem, though, is that according to GAO, it could take the United States 15 years to develop a reliable rare earths supply chain.

That's why many EV proponents are holding out hope that scientists will find a way to work around a potential lanthanides shortage. EE Times reports that researchers backed by Japanese government have developed a next-generation electric motor that doesn't require rare earth metals. An article in Hybridcars.com opines that although the motor isn't yet ready for production, it "could provide companies like Toyota and Honda with the means to completely cut Chinese resources headaches out of the equation."